It seems there are a disproportionate amount of analysts that predict the Nuggets will win their upcoming playoffs series. These experts have tossed around numerous reasons why Denver will be victorious: the Lakers' effort has been inconsistent, the Nuggets have been hot lately, Houston nearly beat L.A. without their two best players.
I do not see this happening, at least not this year. Here is why.
1. Kobe Bryant. The 2009 NBA playoffs may be his last great chance to win another championship. Sure, he may be rather young and he's still in the tail end of his prime, but Kobe has already played over 1100 games in his 13-year career. In this time span, he's logged over 40,000 minutes, while also being extremely durable. With all of these miles on his legs, one would think that it would be nearly impossible for him to maintain this consistency for much longer. Kobe Bryant's legacy is on the line. He's going to do everything in his power to ensure that the Lakers don't lose.
2. Denver isn't that good. The Nuggets played New Orleans in the first round, a team that had significant disadvantages in both size and depth. The Hornets were basically only playing with two guys: Chris Paul and David West. No one else showed up. Worse, this team clearly gave up on their coach during the series, which is obvious due to their 60 point shellacking at home. The Nuggets played Dallas in the next round. Another squad that lacked size and depth. Josh Howard appeared to be playing at 50% because of his ankle injury, meaning that the entire scoring load rested on Dirk's shoulders. Starting to see any patterns here? Meanwhile the Lakers were struggling against a very well-constructed Houston team that, due to their toughness and great defense, was able to take L.A. all the way to Game 7. Denver has had a much easier road so far.
3. Los Angeles should be able to control Chauncey Billups. The Lakers have trouble guarding quick point guards. They made a mediocre Aaron Brooks look like Isiah Thomas in his prime, which is a big reason why the Rockets won three games in that series. Rajon Rondo's success in the 2008 NBA Finals is another example. Luckily the 32 year old Chauncey Billups has lost a step and his ability to get to the basket is not an issue anymore. Billups lack of mobility will work in the Lakers' favor.
4. Defense - Who will cover Kobe? Dahntay Jones is supposedly the Nuggets' best perimeter defender. To his credit, he played Chris Paul really well in the first round. One problem this creates is that Jones is an awful offensive player. When his is on the court, Denver's scoring will suffer. Secondly, if Shane Battier and Ron Artest, two of the best current perimeter defenders in the entire NBA, can't keep Kobe under 25 ppg Dahntay Jones surely isn't going to be able to. When the Nuggets realize that Jones can't guard Kobe, J.R. Smith will take over the defensive duties on the 2008 MVP. This will lead to 78 bad shots that will also affect Denver's offense. Smith has never seen a shot he doesn't like, and would shoot the ball from the parking lot if he was open.
5. The Insanity Factor. Will it be possible for the Nuggets to maintain their composure? Kobe loves to throw his elbows around, often leading to cheap shots on the opposing players. When this happens, I'm not so sure Denver will let it go. What about Kobe's constant taunting and the fact that he constantly runs his mouth? There is a high potential for a fight to occur in this series. The Nuggets have been able to contain their emotions throughout the playoffs thus far, but players like Kenyon Martin and Carmelo Anthony have been previously suspended due to altercations on the court. If either Martin or Anthony is ejected or suspended for any game in this series, it will be to the Lakers' advantage. Derek Fisher doesn't get away with that elbow against Denver.
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