As promised, I will now discuss why I’m predicting the Lakers will hoist the 2009 NBA Championship banner.
I believe it will only take them five games to fend off the Magic. Los Angeles is not only superior but has more depth than Clevelend and Boston, Orlando’s past two opponents. Ultimately, I don’t foresee a sweep in the 2009 finals. The Magic should be able to defeat the Lakers in one of the two contests in Orlando.
I know I’m not exactly taking any risks with this pick. In fact, the only ESPN expert that believes that Orlando will beat the Lakers is Henry Abbott from TrueHoop. I don’t even know who that is.
Let’s start off with the basics. The team with the best player almost always wins, especially in the NBA Finals. In the past 21 years, the only exceptions have been 2008 (Boston Celtics) and 2004 (Detroit Pistons), where in both instances, Kobe Bryant was the best player on the court. This also occurred in 1989, when Magic Johnson fell victim to Isiah Thomas’s Pistons. Ironically all three scenarios involved the Lakers.
In the 2009 NBA Finals, Kobe Bryant is clearly the top player involved. Not only does he possess more talent than anyone else, but he has the most to prove as well since his legacy is on the line. I’m sure he also still has last year’s demoralizing loss to the Celtics on his mind, which further adds fuel to the fire.
Additionally, the superior coach in the championship series typically leads his squad to victory. The Lakers hold an extraordinary edge in this department. There hasn’t been a larger coaching descrepancy in the NBA finals in recent memory, although the Popovich/Mike Brown series in 2007 ranks very close.
Another factor to be considered is how well Orlando has shot the ball in the past several contests. The Magic converted 62 three-point field goals, a record in a five game series. There’s no possible way they can continue to maintain that pace. Orlando’s recent trend of three-point shooting success can actually be detrimental to their quest to win the 2009 NBA championships. Since the team has been doing so well from long range, they will likely keep taking three-point shots, regardless of whether they are going in or not. I’m anticipating a few blowouts in this series. There will be a couple games where Magic succumb to the pressure of the NBA finals and hit a cold streak, resulting in a considerable loss.
I also believe that this is finally Phil Jackson’s opportunity to get even. For Shaquille O’Neal’s entire tenure with the Lakers, he was consistently fouled due to his awful ability (or lack thereof) to shoot free throws. In the end of games, teams used the “Hack-a-Shaq” technique in an attempt to eliminate a Los Angeles possession. Often times he would miss both shots from the charity stripe and this strategy was validated. Now Jackson is on the other end of the spectrum. Orlando’s Dwight Howard is equally as terrible from the free-throw line. Unlike Cleveland, Jackson’s squad has more depth and size, meaning that they have the ability to foul in crunch time. Jackson is also a competent coach, so he wouldn’t allow a 50% foul shooter to score four baskets in a crucial overtime period like Mike Brown did. Pending there are a few close games, you can surely expect the implementation of “Hack-a-Dwight.”
A successful NBA Finals performance boils down to experience. A majority of the Lakers personnel have held significant roles in the championship series, including the team’s best player (Bryant), coach (Jackson), starting point guard (Fisher), and key role players (Odom, Gasol, Walton, Vujacic, Farmar, Ariza. etc). With the exception of Hedo Turkoglu, this is the first deep playoff run for every member of the Magic. Complicating matters worse is that Orlando does not have home court advantage, so they will need to win at least one game in Los Angeles. Since the Lakers have the edge in both experience and number of home games, it’s going to be very tough for the Magic to squeeze our a victory in this series.
- Scottie
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